Illustrative report based on a fictional transaction
Project Cedar: Commercial landscaping, Ohio · $3.2M
The buyer’s question
Is $3.2M a fair price for a landscaping business whose best year included an unusually snowy winter, and does the SBA financing hold?
The finding
The illustrative analysis supports adjusted earnings of approximately $912k, 11.6% below the broker-presented $1,032k. At 3.5x adjusted earnings, the asking price is within the example’s 3.2–3.8x market range and 4.5% below its $3.35M valuation conclusion. Conditions for proceeding remain important.
How the analysis supports it
- Snow revenue normalized to the five-year average: −$47.5k
- Three add-backs only partly supported by invoices: −$47.6k
- Value from DCF ($3.45M), earnings multiples ($3.28M and $3.32M), weighted 40/30/30
- Debt service coverage 1.68x against the 1.25x floor; it reaches the floor only at an 18.6% earnings decline
What it changes
Proceed at the asking price, with three conditions in the purchase agreement: a working-capital peg set by month (up to $285k is at stake if closing slips), a committed $350k seasonal credit line before closing, and the seller’s cooperation on seasonal visas plus a specific indemnity for past contractor classification.
Engagement that produces it
Quality of Earnings and Valuation Analysis. The same deal is also shown as a Deal Check and a Deal Second Opinion.
The illustrative analysis supports proceeding at the proposed price, subject to a working-capital arrangement that reflects seasonality.